James Mound

A Market Review and Opinion Report For the Week Ending February 5th, 2012

Crude oil broke thru key support overnight heading into this report, suggesting a strong breakdown may be underway this week. Look for a close below 97.40 on the March contract to confirm. Natural gas quickly reversed its first stab at a rally in what feels like eons. I would expect some volatility this week, but ultimately this is a place to get long natural gas with straight calls.

Friday’s report showed unemployment dropping to the lowest level in 3 years, with 243,000 jobs added which was much higher than forecasted. I would not be surprised if they revise down for Jan come next month, but nevertheless this was bullish for the stock market and helped the S&P breakout to yet another fresh near term high. This is a runaway bull market that is overdue for a strong correction. Puts are highly recommended. The dollar has traded down during this stock market rally – as it tends to trade inverted this should be of no surprise. - Read More

James Mound’s Weekend Commodities Review for June 26th, 2011

Energies Crude oil continues to breakdown on a technical level, closing the second consecutive week with fresh 4 month lows.  The release of strategic petroleum reserves offers a fundamental backing to a technical failure, but followers of the WCR know the real reason oil is falling is due to a weakening global economic outlook.  Slow [...] - Read More

James Mound’s Weekend Commodities Review for June 19th, 2011

Energies Rising supplies, concerns over the global demand outlook and declining fear premium all scream to me a top in energies. The Mississippi floods may cause short term issues, but in the end I suspect the end of the ‘concern’ over that supply issue will mark a further catalyst to selling as opposed to a [...] - Read More

James Mound’s Weekend Commodities Review

The Weekend Commodities Review For the Week Ending June 12th, 2011 Energies OPEC’s decision to keep output unchanged came as a bit of a surprise this week, as calls for supply increases amid high energy prices went unanswered.  Saudi Arabia’s independent effort to increase supplies is unlikely to be overly impactful.  Regardless, I do anticipate [...] - Read More

James Mound’s Weekend Commodities Review

The Weekend Commodities Review For the Week Ending June 5th, 2011 Energies Crude oil choppiness persists as rising tensions in the Middle East and weakness in the U.S. dollar is offset by production builds and a declining global demand outlook.  Overall, energies remain a short using defined risk option plays as upside volatility spikes from [...] - Read More

James Mound’s Weekend Commodities Review for May 22nd, 2011

Energies Crude oil has become so closely tied to the global economic outlook that the demand side pressure is seemingly outweighing the supply side premium.  That means a strong dollar and weak global demand outlook should push oil prices below $90.  Gasoline and heating oil should follow suit while natural gas remains a long term [...] - Read More

James Mound’s Weekend Commodities Review for May 15th, 2011

Energies Rising supplies, concerns over the global demand outlook and declining fear premium all scream to me a top in energies.  The Mississippi floods may cause short term issues, but in the end I suspect the end of the ‘concern’ over that supply issue will mark a further catalyst to selling as opposed to a [...] - Read More

The Weekend Commodities Review For the Week Ending May 8th, 2011

Energies One of the biggest single day declines in crude oil history occurred as concerns over a global economic slowdown, monetary tightening, and the end of the commodity inflation rally all helped to spark large fund and spec selling.  Silver led the charge and the trading world began to see the bubble burst across the [...] - Read More

James Mound’s Weekend Commodities Review May 01, 2011

Energies Bin Laden’s killing Sunday night by American forces is likely to be a major catalyst to the reversal in oil prices, despite its indirect affect on Middle East tensions.  In fact, it is likely that this week remains sensitive to retaliatory efforts by the Taliban.  As days go on without incident it will allow [...] - Read More

James Mound’s Weekend Commodities Review for April 10th, 2011

General Comments It has been a while since I put out a ‘normal’ weekend commodities review.  A number of readers emailed in asking if I stopped writing the report because the yen hit 80.  That is cause for concern because the yen is actually trading just above 118 as of this morning.  The Japanese yen [...] - Read More