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Cotton trades a little higher.

John Flanagan
In Grain Futures | Market Analysis | Softs Futures
by John Flanagan at 9:35 am on February 24, 2012 - [edit]

Cotton prices fell on Thursday but are trading 30 higher this morning. Export sales of cotton were good at 185,200 bales plus 22,000 bales of optional origin. Shipments were also good at 326,200 bales.

The USDA Outlook preliminary estimate for 12/13 cotton production is 17 million bales using a yield of 777 lbs/acre. Carry out would rise to 5.3 million bales. They suggest the average price would be 80 cents. Yesterday we reported that open interest in March was near 7,000 contracts but that was mistaken.

Open interest was closer to 1,100 contracts.  The US Dollar Index is down 29 points at 78.60. Crude oil is up 56 cents at $108.81. March soybeans were up 1 cent overnight at $12.77 ¾. Soybean export sales were 1,159,400 tons for current crop and 2,873,000 tons for new crop. USDA’s Outlook estimate for the 12/13 soybean crop was 3.25 billion bu. Using a yield of 43.9 b/a.

This would lead to a carry out of 205 mb.  They suggest the average price would be $11.50. March corn was down 3 ¼ cents overnight at $6.36 ¼. Export sales of corn were 840,800 tons, within expectations. USDA Outlook estimate for 12/13 corn is 14.27 billion bu. Using a yield of 164 bu./acre. This would result in a carryout of 1.616 billion bu. And an average price of $5.00. March wheat was down 5 ¾ cents overnight at $6.36. USDA Outlook estimate for 12/13 wheat was 2.165 billion bu using a 44.5 bu yield. This would result in a 957 million bu. And an average price of $6.60.

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