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Lean Hogs Futures: More Downside to Come


A 10% rally in late February has been halted by a sharp descending trendline going back to November. This indicates the downtrend is likely to continue for April lean hog futures (HE).

69.5 to 69.9 is the main resistance area which stalled the advance. The price consolidated just below that region (on the 4-hour chart), before declining again on February 26. There a number of entry points based on what the price does first--rise or fall--over the next few days.

Figure 1. April Lean Hog Futures - 4 Hour Chart

lean hogs-1.jpg

An ideal entry is near 68.50, just below the earlier consolidation and near the March 2 high. A stop loss can then be kept in close proximity just above the 69.90 high of the February advance. 

If the price drops though, without pulling back to the above entry area, an alternative short entry is at 66.2.

Target for the trade is 60.4, right near the bottom of the (estimated) trend channel.

Seasonally, March is a strong month for Lean Hogs. That's something to keep in mind if the price rallies above 69.90, breaking the downward channel.  In that case, the initial target on the advance is 73 followed by 74.5.

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