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British Pound At Key Juncture

Since peaking at 1.7184 in mid-2014, British Pound futures (6B) have steadily lost ground. The futures bottomed at 1.4946 in January and have climbed higher since. If the price rallies further, this move is likely the first leg of an uptrend. If it declines from here the downtrend remains in effect. Such analysis is relevant to how traders proceed near current levels, and after the next wave (higher or lower).

The price remains in a downtrend, with aggressive traders looking to get short in the vicinity of 1.5460 to 1.5479, with a stop loss above the 1.5479 February high. This area is important because it was the starting point of a strong sell-off in January, and the last major leg down. Staying below the starting point of that decline maintains the downtrend. In February the price has respected this area, showing there is resistance there.

Traders looking for more confirmation the downtrend is continuing are watching for a decline below 1.533, the February 23 low, as that will complete a short-term double-top pattern.

Figure 1. British Pound Futures: 4-Hour Chart

british pound-1.jpg

Whether short or long, keep targets conservative.

For short positions, consider getting out before 1.5050, as below that a support area has developed.

On this time frame, 4-hour or daily, the long isn't particular attractive yet. If the price continues to rally through this resistance area the trend has likely shifted to the upside though. In that case, pullbacks to the rising trendline in the future will present buying opportunities (to be discussed at that time).

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