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Downside Euro Breakout of Mini-Channel

The Euro has been in a strong decline since hitting 1.398 in May (December contract). In June, August and September it stabilized, briefly, with periods of consolidation. Ultimately these were short lived and the price continued lower.

The October channel/consolidation is angled upwards and larger than the previous consolidations. The size of this pattern, and steepness of it, shows there are more buyers involved. That could be bullish if they win out, but bearish if those additional buyers are once again forced to sell in a hurry.


October 22 is seeing December Euros move below the short-term upward channel its been trading in--a bearish signal.

Since the trend is down, if the price move continues the lows at 1.2506 will likely be taken out. Target is 1.24 if that scenario develops.

If the prior low provides support, there's a potential for a double bottom chart pattern, but it takes a rally back above 1.29 to confirm that and improve the overall outlook for the Euro. A better scenario for Euro bulls is if support kicks in above 1.26, causing a bounce. That higher swing low would indicate at least the short-term bullishness is still alive, and warrant trading the upward trend channel with a tight stop.

Overall though, the dominant trend remains down, and that should be respected.


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