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Downtrend in Mexican Peso Resuming

Since early in the year when the Mexican Peso hit a high of 0.06904 the price has been respecting a downward sloping trendline. In mid- June the price rallied and touched that trendline again, and has since been declining.  On June 19 and 22 the September contract consolidated (price) below the descending trendline and then broke below minor support at 0.06464, signaling the potential resurgence of the downtrend.

The initial target for the decline is 0.063, just above the June low at 0.06295. 0.063 is also the price area that provided support in March. With support at 0.063, and the descending trendline intersecting just above 0.065, the price is also within a large triangle pattern.  A break below triangle support indicates a much larger move lower could ensue.

Figure 1. Mexican Peso Futures 4 Hour Chart - Continuous

On the flip side, a rally back above the June high of 0.6552 (September contract) draws the downtrend into question and would break the triangle to the upside, indicating a longer-term bullish move in the Mexican Peso is underway.

The triangle target for an upside breakout is approximately 0.06950. The target for a downside breakout is approximately 0.059

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