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Euro Triggers Another Short Trade After Testing Descending Trendline

The Euro moved higher after putting in a March 13 low of 1.0473. Despite the rally, Euro futures (6E) remain in a strong downtrend. The latest sell signal occurred on March 27 when the price dropped below 1.0903, and is being confirmed by further selling today (March 30). For context, in May of 2014 Euro contracts were trading north of 1.39.

The relevant downward trendline in the Euro is one that connects the December and February rallies. Extending this potential resistance area out of the right, it intersects with the March rally. This alone isn't a reason to sell. There is other evidence though which indicates the price could start heading lower again.

Figure 1. Euro Futures - Daily Chart

euro trade.jpg

On March 18 there was a sharp rise due to an FOMC statement. Despite the strong move, there was little follow-through. On the days following the surge the Euro was barely able to move above the high established on that day. With the overall downtrend, trendline resistance and the price shifting back to the downside, the position of choice remains short. The signal comes sooner than previously expected; on March 6 it was indicated the next sell area could be in the 1.12 to 1.13 region. That area may still be useful in the future if the Euro moves higher instead of lower from the current 1.0832 level.

The current trade is a sell at 1.0903--a level touched multiple times over the last few sessions. A stop loss goes above the March 26 high of 1.1064. Initial target is 1.05, just above the 1.0473 low of the June contract. A more aggressive target is 1.03, near the low of the current trend channel.

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