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Finally a Breakout in the Japanese Yen?


Since mid-February Japanese Yen Futures (6J) have been moving sideways within a smaller and smaller area. Many traders have been waiting for a breakout. While the yearly low at 0.008205 hasn't been broken, the futures have broken below a triangle pattern which started in mid-March.

While the triangle breakout is bearish, the pattern is relatively small (in the context of the larger range). The real important factor is whether the price drops out of this range (grey box on chart) it has been trading in since December. A strong break below 0.008205 indicates a longer-term decline could be underway.


Figure 1.  Japanese Yen Futures - Daily Chart

Based on the size of the range (going back December), subtracted to from the breakout price, the long-term target is 0.007775. The triangle breakout provides a target of 0.008106.

After price has channeled for an extended period of time, false breakouts are common. If the price breaks slightly below the low, and then rallies back into the range, buy, with a stop loss below the recent low and a target near 0.0084. If it breaks through 0.0084 (old triangle resistance) it could be heading toward the top of the range.

The price may also find support again near 0.0082, consolidating in that area as it did in March. In that case, trade a breakout of the small consolidation; a break higher indicates support has likely held, and a break lower indicates the range is likely going be/is broken (for an example of a consolidation, see Consolidation Breakout in Copper).

The range is very well know among traders, so catching the big move (if it occurs in the next couple weeks) may require switching positions a couple times.  In other words, keep your head on a swivel; respect both the possible breakout scenario, and that the range could continue.

 

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