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Japanese Yen: Time to Re-Enter the Short


After a long sideways period Japanese Yen futures (6J) broke out of the consolidation patterns in May, indicting more downside to come. The downside action since the May 21 article "Finally a Breakout in the Japanese Yen" has reached the first target of 0.008106, which was based a triangle pattern in effect from March to  May.

The longer-term target discussed in that article was 0.007775. Using the September contract the target is adjusted slightly to 0.007794.

A rally in the Yen since early June has pushed the price off the low of 0.007958 and back toward the original breakout (lower) points.  This pullback presents another opportunity to get short. The low of the old range is 0.008217, and the price moved up to 0.0082085 on June 29 before dropping gain.

 

If the price continues to pullback it could re-test the old triangle breakout point near 0.008335.

Use trendlines and/or these old breakout levels for potential entry points. Now that the price has re-tested the range, if it breaks below short-term trendline support at 0.008110 it could be a shorting opportunity. If this short-term uptrend continues, look for a shorting opportunity near the triangle breakout point, or on a drop below a rising trendline since the drop could indicate the downtrend is continuing.

For any trade taken, the potential reward should outweigh the risk.

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