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Japanese Yen Trades Close at Hand


After breaking strongly lower in August, being short has been the ideal position in Japanese Yen futures. Since late December though, the short trade has been drawn into question.

After the December 8 low of 0.008219 (March contract), Yen futures put in a higher low on December 23. That's one of the first bullish signs since the decline began. Though, the price currently remains below the December 16 pullback high of 0.008663. The most recent swing high was 0.008637 on January 16.

Figure 1. Japanese Yen Futures (March Contract) - Daily Chart

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A rally above the January 16 high is a bullish sign, providing a price target of 0.009050. A stop loss could be placed just above 0.0084, or below the most recent swing low should one develop before the upside breakout.

The downtrend could also continue. The price is consolidating above a short-term rising trendline; dropping below the consolidation low at 0.008417 could usher in the next wave of the downtrend. The target is 0.007980. A stop loss could be placed above the consolidation high (currently 0.008558) or above the recent swing high of 0.008637.

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