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Mexican Peso Tests 2 Year Support Zone

The Mexican Peso has had a choppy start to October, moving within an expanding consolidation.

The price tried to push higher out of the consolidation on October 9, but the rally quickly failed. The price is now pushing toward the bottom of the consolidation at 0.07347; if that breaks it will likely have little trouble passing below the 2013 and 2014 low point of 0.07320. These two breakouts have potential implications for both the short and longer term.

Figure 1. Mexican Peso Futures (6M) Daily Chart


With the long-term and short-term trends down, there are also short-term and longer-term targets. If the price breaks below the consolidation, the target is 0.07175. The longer-term target, based on the drop below 2-year support, is 0.06950. This is just above the 2012 low, which created a sharp reversal higher, so it is still a potential support area.

If the price moves back above 0.075 it indicates support has held, but doesn't necessarily constitute taking a long position since the outlook is still bearish at this point.

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