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More Potential Downside for the Swiss Franc

In May the Swiss Franc completed a double top, indicating more downside is likely to come. In June there was a pullback following the breakout; this provided a second chance entry into the potentially newly formed downtrend.

Figure 1. Swiss Franc Futures (6S September Contract)

Over the last couple weeks the price has made a lower high following the pullback, providing short-term evidence of weakness in the context of multi-month weakness.

If the price does indeed continue to decline the target area is between 1.0910 and 1.0870, based on the height of the double top (subtracted from the original breakout price) and the 100% Fibonacci extension level. If the downtrend extends, look for profit taking near 1.07 at the 138% extension level.

There is support below 1.11. Failure to drop below that area means this could be a complex consolidation in the context of the long-term uptrend (over the last two years). A rally above 1.12 and 1.13 would help confirm this, and indicate a move to re-test the double-top highs near 1.15.

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