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Pay Close Attention to This Pattern in the Swiss Franc


After bottoming at 0.9910 on March 12 (the same day a buy trade was signalled), June Swiss Franc futures (6S) moved higher. They are still well off the 1.1975 spike high from January, but there is potential the currency could begin moving closer to that level.

Since the March rally an inverse head and shoulders has formed.  Pattern resistance is 1.0579. A break above that indicates the uptrend is continuing, targeting 1.0975.

swiss franc head and shoulders.jpg
Figure 1. June Swiss France Futures - Daily Chart

The longer-term downtrend since the January high must also be considered. A failed breakout higher, or a move back below the ascending trendline on the right side of the pattern, is an indication the price could begin sliding lower again. Currently, that occurs if the price drops below 1.0340 (this level rises over time since the trendline is ascending). In that event, the target is 1.0.

When buying place a stop loss slightly behind a recent swing low, and when shorting place a stop loss slightly above a recent swing high. When waiting for a breakout, new swing lows or highs may form before the trade occurs; adjust your stop loss accordingly.

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