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Swiss Franc Rolls Over and Headed Lower


During the uptrend which occurred in March, September Swiss Franc (6S) futures peaked at 1.1041 in mid-May. By the end of month it had pulled back to 1.0526. The uptrend was alive though as the price was respecting a rising trendline and still above major prior swing lows from April and March.

The next push higher from May 27 to the June 18 high at 1.0964 was more muted though. That wave was choppy, hesitant; unlike the moves higher seen prior. Drawing a trendline on that wave, the price drops below it June 23. Since then the price has seen a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows.

Up until June 16 the price was able to hold above the 1.05 support area (May pullback low). As of July 17 the price has traded down to 1.0434.

Traders could view the move below 1.0525 to 1.05 as a tradable breakout to the downside (going short). The price is moving hesitantly still though. If looking for a trend trade to the downside, be patient. See if the selling accelerates, and if it does, look for short trades on the pullbacks which stay below prior swing highs. Drawing a trendline along the current slide shows 1.06 to 1.0625 could be one region which prevents shorting opportunities down the road.

Figure 1. September Swiss Franc Futures - Daily Chart

For the time being, long is somewhat dangerous as the trend has shifted to the downside. A rally above 1.0742 signals a possible reversal to the upside again, or more choppy trading. Shorts are preferred, but only if the sellers show more conviction and the right entry point is provided (see What to Know About a Trade Before You Make It).

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