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Trade Short-Term Momentum in Mexican Peso Futures


Toward the end of July the Mexican Peso (6M) has seen aggressive selling as it broke below a small rising channel. After an aggressive decline in June, the weak July rally indicated potential trouble ahead for the Peso.

Figure 1. Mexican Peso Futures (6m - September Contract, Continuous)

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Short-term selling pressure indicates continued selling into the 0.075 region and potentially 0.07350; both Fibonacci extension levels. The latter also represents a major support area going back to June of 2013.

A move back above 0.07711 would once again draw the short-term trend into question. Best to sit on the sidelines if that occurs, until another trend asserts its self.

While short-term momentum is down, the overall structure of this market must be kept in mind. The price action has been choppy, with lack of a long-term trend. Pay close attention to the channels or chart patterns that form, such as the large triangle that formed in the last half of 2013. The downside breakout of that major triangle failed to result in a major down wave, indicating this currency is still struggling to find a definitive direction.

Trade with momentum as these futures are moving within well defined patterns and channels, but reversals are also occurring quite quickly. Don't anticipate breaks through major levels, instead be ready to exit (and potentially even reverse positions) if the price can't pierce through the support/resistance/target areas.

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