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RBOB Gasoline Futures Headed For Another Drop

RBOB Gasoline futures traded north of $3 in 2014, but in 2015 the September contract slid as low as $1.5081 early in the year.

Since that low the trend has been up, until recently. Starting in May the uptrend became more hesitant and ranging, but the price was still edging higher.

The low point of the ranging movement was 1.8677 (May 28 low), and that was broken on July 6. That alone isn't a major concern. If the trend was strongly up such a move is more likely to be a shakeout (false breakout) before another move higher. That's still a possibility, but looking at the price action from June there is a cautionary tale.

For all of May the price was range bound, then the price broker higher in June...but just barely. The price stayed above the prior range for a few sessions, but then drifted back lower and has now broken out to the downside.

The failed attempt to move higher shows little interest in buying above 2.04, at this time. With recent weakness the September RBOB gasoline looks poised for a deeper pullback.

Figure 1. September RBOB Gasoline - Daily Chart

The pattern it just broke out of provides a potential target. The whole range, from when it started in May to the breakout in July, is 0.2189. Subtracted from the breakout price that gives a target of 1.6488. Through March and early April the contract found support just near 1.70, therefore 1.74 is a more conservative target for the decline. 

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