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Soybean Meal Finally Ready to Run


March 2017 soybean meal futures (ZM) surged from a February low of 269.9 to a June high of 389.8. Since that high the price the price had retraced 75% of that advance, dropping as low as 297.6 in September.

Back on November 23, in Soybean Meal Expected to Rally, it was indicated because of this large 2016 surge a long-term uptrend is still likely underway, even though the price has experienced a deep pullback. At that time there were bullish patterns playing out, but ultimately soybean meal continued to move sideways (and this warned about at the time).

Figure 1. March 2017 Soybean Meal, Daily Chart

January 12 has once again produced a very bullish signal, though. March soybean meal is up 4.06% to 327.7. While the price hasn't totally cleared resistance in the 330/331 region, this move has significantly broken out of a triangle/wedge pattern in play throughout December. With a contingent of other commodities seeing bullish price action in recent weeks, and some US dollar weakness, the possibility of a legitimate breakout is definitely improving.

As indicated back in November, if this is an uptrend then the price should eventually exceed 389.8 (June high). For shorter-term trades though, 350 and 355 is a reasonable target for the next thrust up...if in fact we can get liftoff this time.

A move back below 310 isn't necessarily long-term bearish, but does indicate this choppiness could continue a while longer.

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