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Buying Opportunity in Gold on Trendline Bounce

In March the June Gold futures contract rallied from a low of 1142.2 to an April high of 1224.5. This is still well below the 2015 high of 1309, but the March-April rally has been strong enough to indicate at least a short-term uptrend is likely now in play.

After a pullback from the April high the price of gold is currently testing a rising trendline. The price is expected to find support between 1195 and 1185. A drop below 1178 warns the short-term uptrend may be over, or the price is entering a sideways period (possibly ranging between 1180 and the 1220 region).

The price is currently consolidating, on the 4-hour chart, between 1202.6 and 1192.4. If the price rallies back above 1202.6, enter long with a stop loss below the consolidation low (currently 1192.4, but may change slightly before an entry occurs).

Figure 1. June Gold Futures (GC) - 4 Hour Chart

gold futures uptrend.jpg

Based on the trajectory of the uptrend targets for June Gold futures are 1230 and 1240. The trade is likely to last one to three weeks. For traders seeking longer term trades this trade setup is still valid; if the uptrend continues higher profit targets are possible.

Seasonally, gold has a slight upward tendency from mid-April to into early May.

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