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Is the Bounce In Silver a Buying or Shorting Opportunity?

Based on an outlook in September the downtrend and break below a triangle pattern indicated silver (SI) could slide to $13.25. So far December silver futures have traded as low as $15.04, and March (2015) silver as lows as $15.085.

That $13.25 target is still valid despite a strong short-term rise in silver prices recently. On November 14 silver (March) spiked to an intra-day high of $16.43, and $16.50 on November 16/17. That puts silver just below a descending trendline going back to July.

Figure 1. March 2015 Silver - Daily Chart

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The downtrend indicates silver hasn't turned around yet. Watch for a consolidation near the trendline in the $16.50 area. If the price pauses (consolidates) and then drops below that consolidation it's a signal to go short with a tight stop just above the consolidation. If the price continues higher (without consolidating and breaking lower) $17 to $17.10 is the next place to go short.

In order for silver to turn bullish it needs to rally to at least $17.83. That would erase the last down leg indicating there's steam on the side of the buyers.  Above this is strong resistance between $18.50 and $19, an area that provided support for more than a year-and-a-half and is now likely to act as resistance on rallies.

While there's a possibility short-term upward momentum could continue, technically there a number of a factors still working to keep silver subdued.

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