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The Next Trades to Watch for In Gold


December Gold Futures just barely edged past the prior low and large triangle bottom at 1185 to 1183.3 on October 6, before quickly rallying back inside a the large triangle.

The large triangle going back to the summer of 2013 is therefore still intact as a one point move below the prior low isn't considered a breakout (or even a false breakout). Gold has simply found support in that region again.

With support having held, at least for the short term, here are upcoming entry points to consider.

The price has already broken below a small triangle pattern within the larger one (white shorter lines). The breakout of the smaller triangle was definitive, therefore when the price comes back to test the lower trendline of the smaller triangle it's likely to act as resistance.

Moving out further in time the top of the large triangle and lower trendline of the smaller triangle converge near 1300. This is also highly likely to be a resistance area, providing another shorting opportunity based on the long-term downtrend.

Figure 1. December Gold Futures (GC) - Daily Chart

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Stop can be placed above 1330 (to give a bit of room above the large triangle trendline) and the target is back below 1200. Long-term target is 935 if there is definitive break below 1183.3. Ideally wait for the price to pause at the anticipated resistance area and start dropping again before entering the short position. That way a stop loss can be placed above the most recent high.

Based on the long-term downtrend short positions are still favored because triangles are typically a continuation pattern (downside breakout still expected).

If the price breaks through the upper trendline of the large (and small) triangles, then the outlook switches to bullish, and will be addressed at that time.

 

 

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