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Breakout in Sugar Expected

March Sugar is in a downward trend channel but has been consolidating at the bottom of that channel since late September.  The consolidation has taken the form of a triangle. A triangle breakout indicates the likely direction of sugar over the next few months.

Figure 1. March Sugar No. 11 (SB) - Daily Chart


A move above 16.30 breaks the triangle to the upside and provides a target of 18. This aligns with the seasonal tendency, as November through February can often be bullish months for the commodity. So far this year sugar hasn't followed the seasonal tendencies closely though.

The trend is down so a break below 15.42 indicates a continued move lower and an acceleration of the downtrend to 13.75.

When trading a triangle a stop loss is usually placed just outside the pattern on the opposite of the breakout.

If the price can't break above 16.30, or breaks above it and then quickly drops back into the triangle (false breakout), that's also a potential shorting opportunity. In this case a stop loss can be placed above the recent high. Targets are the bottom of the pattern, then 13.75 in the event of a downside breakout.


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