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Cocoa Testing Support After Sharp Decline

A couple weeks ago December Cocoa Futures traded as high as 3399; today it hovers just above the September low (support) of 3019. The 3019 support is important as it was from there that the price was catapulted to 3399 in aggressive fashion. Within the span of a month prices shot up and fell more than 10%. It is this region which will determine whether it's the buyers or sellers who feel the most pain.

Figure 1. December Cocoa Futures (CC) - Daily Chart

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Overall the trend is up, and that must be given respect. If the price stabilizes above 3019, watch for a move back above 3090 (even a touch lower). That pop higher could trigger more aggressive buying again, except this time the target is between 3225 and 3275. That sharp October fall indicates sellers are very active, so while the price could reach 3399 again, at this point a more conservative target is the prudent play.

A daily close below 3019 puts anyone who bought during the September rally, and hasn't covered, in a tough position. Additional selling could push the price below 2900. If the price drops below 3019 and the rallies to lower-higher than 3399, that signals this market has reversed trend, and looking for short positions will likely prove more profitable than looking for longs.


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