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Canadian Dollar Stalls At Bullish Breakout Level


Canadian dollar futures (6C) were in a long-term downtrend until bottoming in early 2016 (along with many commodities). The ensuing rally into May of that year broke the long-term downtrend, and indicated the "loonie" may be entering a long-term uptrend against the US dollar.

Since May of 2016, Canadian dollar futures have been moving in a descending channel. The angle of descent is much shallower than the previous rally, showing that this is likely a pullback within an overall uptrend as opposed to the start of another downtrend.

The resistance point of the channel is 0.76, a level that was breached in mid-January. The breakout is a bullish signal, indicating the next leg of the uptrend could be commencing.  If that is the case, targets include 0.81, and 0.86 over the longer-term.  These targets are based on price patterns and volatility levels over the last year.

Figure 1. Canadian Dollar, Continuous Futures Chart

The price is stalling at that channel breakout point though. If the price drops much below 0.75 it will likely head toward the bottom of the channel near 0.73, on the March 2017 contract.  Buying at 0.73, along channel support, is an alternate entry point for those are long-term bullish on the Canadian dollar. Though, if the price pushes back above 0.77 on the March contract the next upswing has likely begun.

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