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One More Run Higher in Sugar


Sugar (SB) has had an impressive run higher. On the March 2017 contract, sugar traded as low as 12.05 in August of 2015, and a recently has high as 24.10 in September of 2016.

Since the high the price has pulled back into the 19 region. This is a potential support area as this is where the last leg of the uptrend began before heading to 24.

The chart below shows sugar (continuous chart); the black line filters out all moves less than 16.5%. This reveals two major legs higher and 2 corrections, so far.  The first correction near the start of 2016 was just over 20%. So far the correction near the end of 2016 is also just over 20%. Based on this pattern, one more wave to the upside would be expected.

Sugar Daily Continuous Chart

If the wave originates between 18.5 and 19 (the buy area), the expected upside is to 23.5 to 24. That's a conservative target near the recent high. A more aggressive target is near 28, which would require a strong final leg higher in this overall uptrend.

If the price drops much below 18.25 it indicates that a much deeper correction is underway, likely into the 13 region.

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